While cost-containment was the original impetus for reform (and which NSBA relentlessly fought for), the final product placed access to coverage paramount. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzed the Senate health care bill last fall, prior to minor changes made by the final bill and the reconciliation bill, and suggested that average premiums in the small-group market will be anywhere from 1 percent lower to 2 percent higher in 2016 than what they would have been otherwise absent reform.

For the non-group market – those buying as individuals – average premiums per person will be about 10 to 13 percent higher in 2016 than what they would have been under current law. It should be noted, CBO’s conclusion suggest the premium changes are on top of the currently unsustainable health insurance inflation trends. Much of this increase is due to the expanded requirements for essential benefits packages and the actuarial value of those plans post-reform.  

What is not taken into account are myriad taxes on other service providers, such as health insurers and medical device makers, which could basically be passed on to the consumer in the form of higher premiums.